Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 2.057210 2.729855 3.642195 5.001297 7.030236e+00 1.004185e+01 15.042140
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.445978 2.200803 3.423342 5.667323 9.981375e+00 1.865046e+01 39.789494
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.029809 1.747520 3.092248 6.057562 1.331241e+01 3.338345e+01 111.592853
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.829680 1.564481 3.157541 7.431518 2.127319e+01 7.951349e+01 561.105788
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.669043 1.383677 3.151855 8.885542 3.389305e+01 2.104490e+02 5487.163464
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.554035 1.247663 3.193703 10.841717 5.744470e+01 7.242725e+02 566674.485156
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.459521 1.115196 3.176487 12.927787 9.815141e+01 3.379929e+03 NaN
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.358697 0.916037 2.813216 13.102949 1.339254e+02 1.416649e+04 NaN
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.278394 0.738949 2.405883 12.496916 1.660256e+02 6.959556e+04 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.232610 0.646940 2.264291 13.538291 2.609796e+02 3.525113e+06 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.206923 0.608199 2.324659 16.648641 5.540794e+02 NaN NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.189914 0.591644 2.488580 21.960738 1.560494e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.166948 0.546213 2.496709 26.726485 4.553201e+03 NaN NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.139015 0.467624 2.242985 27.001165 8.800221e+03 NaN NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.114997 0.394616 1.960384 25.775379 1.483720e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.102325 0.364450 1.935397 30.295911 7.307679e+04 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.091013 0.334967 1.888870 34.875848 6.483267e+05 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.082257 0.313217 1.882118 41.771800 9.155489e+07 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.074299 0.291554 1.855318 49.044278 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.064223 0.254836 1.656900 46.876053 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.055047 0.219398 1.438818 41.843411 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.049505 0.200872 1.364243 44.479239 NaN NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.046445 0.194244 1.400881 56.074207 NaN NaN NaN